Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 09 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 882 (S12W58), the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot group on the visible disk, exhibited no new growth and no activity of note this period. A small B-class flare was observed in Region 883 (S04E26).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 882.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again this period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on 10 May as a large, recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position. Active to minor storm periods are likely on 11 and 12 May, and isolated major storm periods are possible.

III. Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 09 May 083

Predicted 10 May-12 May 085/085/080

90 Day Mean 09 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 005/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 005/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 008/012-025/030-020/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/50/50

Minor storm 05/25/25

Major-severe storm 01/15/15

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/50/50

Minor storm 10/30/30

Major-severe storm 01/20/20