Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 14 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 880 (S08W70) is the only region on the visible disk with spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 14 May 072

Predicted 15 May-17 May 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 14 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 009/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 006/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01