Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 15 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 16 and 17 May. On 18 May, quiet to active conditions are expected due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 15 May 072

Predicted 16 May-18 May 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 15 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 006/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 005/005-005/008-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/25

Minor storm 05/05/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/20/30

Minor storm 05/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05