Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 16 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 May. On 18 and 19 May, geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 16 May 072

Predicted 17 May-19 May 070/070/075

90 Day Mean 16 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/008-010/015-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/20

Minor storm 05/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/30/25

Minor storm 10/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/05