Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 21 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 22 May-24 May

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 21 May 078

Predicted 22 May-24 May 080/085/085

90 Day Mean 21 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 005/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 003/005-003/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 05/05/05

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 00/00/00

B. High Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01