Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 23 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few B-class events from Region 884 (S13W05) and Region 885 (S12E03). New region 886 (N08E46) emerged on the disk today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class event during the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next 24 hours (24 May). Mostly unsettled conditions are expected for the second day (25 May) due to recurrence. Conditions should return to quiet levels for the third day (26 May).

III. Event Probabilities 24 May-26 May

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 23 May 084

Predicted 24 May-26 May 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 23 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 006/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 007/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 005/005-008/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/20/10

Minor storm 05/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/25/15

Minor storm 05/15/05

Major-severe storm 01/05/01