Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 24 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar Activity was very low. Region 884 (S12W14) produced today's only event, a B1 x-ray event at 1443Z. Region 886 (N07E31) showed slow growth during the past 24 hours but was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly very low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:

The geomagetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for 25 May due to recurrence. Quiet conditions are expected for 26-27 May.

III. Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 24 May 084

Predicted 25 May-27 May 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 24 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 004/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 008/010-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/10/10

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/15/15

Minor storm 15/05/05

Major-severe storm 05/01/01