Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 29 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. A period of unsettled conditions was observed from 28/2100Z to 28/2400Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30 - 31 May, with isolated active periods possible on 31 May. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 01 Jun, with isolated periods of minor and major storm conditions possible due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 29 May 081

Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 29 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 005/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 005/010-010/015-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/20/25

Minor storm 05/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 10/15/20

Major-severe storm 01/05/10