Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 May 30 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 886 (N08W53) developed during the past 24 hours and is now a Cro Beta group with a size of 40 millionths. Region 891 (S13E19) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated minor storm period from 1200 - 1500 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 May. Mostly unsettled condtions with active periods are expected on 01 - 02 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 30 May 080

Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 30 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 001/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 010/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 010/015-015/020-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/25/25

Minor storm 10/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 15/20/20

Major-severe storm 05/10/10