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OTTAWA, ON, May 17, 2006 (Refocus Weekly)
Canada’s largest province could install 3,400 MW
of solar PV panels by 2025, out of a technical potential of 14,000
MW, according to the industry association.
“The market for PV is well developed in off-grid applications and
does not need major support,” says the Canadian Solar Industries
Association in its document, ‘Potential of Solar PV in Ontario.’
“However, these markets are limited and will not grow to greater
than 1 MW per year.”
Globally, the market for solar PV is in grid-connected applications
and Ontario will be the same, with potential in new homes,
commercial buildings and the existing housing stock. “Currently, it
is technically feasible to install over 3,000 MW of PV on single,
detached homes in Ontario, generating 3,200 GWh annually; given the
right policy conditions, the technical potential for PV on all
buildings in Ontario is over 14,000 MW by 2025, generating 13,000
GWh annually.”
An adequate support mechanism to stimulate the market, such as
feed-in tariffs or Standard Offer Contracts, “will allow the PV
industry to build capacity, allowing it to provide a significant
source of power to Ontario by 20205,” and CanSIA projects that PV
could supply 3,400 MW in Ontario by 2025.
“Solar electricity is the fastest growing energy source in the world
with annual growth rates in the range of 25-35% over the last 10
years,” the report notes. “In 2004, there was an installed capacity
of over 2,500 MW globally; in Germany alone, the market grew by 87%
and 360 MW of PV was installed.”
PV prices have dropped by 5% a year since the 1980s but increased
last year due to a global shortage of silicon feedstock. “Price of
PV produced electricity are expected to be competitive to the
average delivered price of electricity in most nations in the
2015-2025 timeframe” and, during peak capacity periods, the
cross-over point will be considerably sooner.
In Ontario last year, there were 20 occurrences where the purchased
cost of electricity was higher that the cost of PV generated
electricity, yet “Canada has lagged behind significantly other
industrialized nations in the growth of PV markets,” the association
notes. Canada has 13 MW of installed capacity compared with 1,300 MW
in Germany, and Canada has 26% of the international average for
solar panels on a per capita basis.
“The markets for solar PV have undergone a dramatic shift in the
last five years” with 78% of the global market now going to
grid-connected applications. Again, Canada has lagged behind in this
market with less than 3.5% of the domestic market being connected to
the grid.
“As is in other developing technologies, a critical element in the
development and growth of the solar PV industry is the setting of
long-term growth targets for the industry,” says CanSIA. “The
potential for PV is well acknowledged in other nations and extensive
government sponsored studies have been carried out internationally
to identify appropriate support mechanisms; in Canada, there has
only been two government studies of solar PV’s long term potential.”
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