Storm Tracks Worsening Drought in Some US States, Alleviating Drought in Others

Location: New York
Author: Michael Schlacter
Date: Friday, May 5, 2006
 

May storminess, rains or lack thereof, can potentially tip the scales in favor of hotter or milder weather likelihoods in the ensuing Summer (June-September). For some locations the certitude of blistering surface conditions this Summer are being locked in, in other locations the probabilities are shifting between hot, dry 'spikey' heat and warm-muggy conditions, and in still other isolated locations the outlook for the Summer is being modified significantly or even reversed.

However, one should be cautious in assuming that weather maps depicting widespread severe weather and heavy rains, can erase overnight 1000's of square miles of surface drought that is built up over several months. In most cases the soaking rains are localized and the downpours are brief (often running off analogous to opening a faucet over a hard, dry sponge).

In any event, there will be cool cities embedded in warm regions, hot cities embedded in mild regions. Some locations will make their mark this Summer via anomalous Cooling Degree Days and others will make their mark with anomalous Critical Days (e.g. Days >90°F). Consequently, please do not hesitate to let us know if there are any site-specific analyses you'd like us to examine and prepare, should there be exact locations, time-frames and weather variables that are critical to your operations.

Forecasting the Forecast:

Model variance and uncertainties caused the NWS to flip their outlooks in many areas of the Nation and lower their confidence to "much below average." More of the same should be expected today, but this time there is no denying that the East should be on the colder side for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods. Below normal temperatures may remain in the 6-10 Outlook for the Northwest, but look for some warmth to be introduced in the 8-14 day maps in a lot of the West.

NOAA/CPC Outlook for the month of MAY (released this past Sunday) continue to indicate NO Warmth for the entire Nation between the Rockies and the Atlantic Ocean, reaffirming that 'shocking' CDD/GDD/Max-T results could ensue.