US Weather Commentary 051906

Location: New York
Author: Michael Schlacter
Date: Friday, May 19, 2006
 

Warmer Temperatures Begin Eastward Shift

For Each U.S. region listed below, the first bullet-point will focus on medium-range comments (updated each discussion), while the second bullet-point will focus on Seasonal comments (updated as research warrants)

Northeast:
Region will be experiencing some more pleasant/normal May weather, but no legitimate heat in sight whatsoever. 'Sunshine-Evaporation-Haze-Clouds-Showers' cycle will continue into foreseeable future as Boston will likely have to wait until June to see its first day of 2006 hitting 81°F or warmer, and 70's could be the limit for New York City as well, for balance of May.

While bouts of mugginess need to be eyed, routine troughiness (-NAO) will help ensure that locations such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Burlington and Hartford will have some of the most significant reductions in cumulative Cooling Degree Days from Summer 2005 to Summer 2006.

Southeast:
Moderate and consistent positive temperature anomalies (translating to upper 80's to low-90's) will encompass much of region to close out month of May, with generally dry weather, worsening drought and continued wildfire risk, particularly for deep South.

With (warmer) ridging soon shifting eastward, critical days (i.e. days > 90°F) could be more numerous than in 2005, and with Hurricane Season almost upon us, substantial stresses on both the Agricultural and Energy Industries are likely.

North-Central:
Oscillations between well above-normal temperatures (due to proximity to Mid-Con Ridging epicenter) and cooler troughs swinging down from Canada will trigger numerous thunderstorm and tornado outbreaks for concluding days/week of May.

Parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois need to closely be monitored for emerging drought and thus the prospects of surface-enhanced heat-waves during the Summer.

South-Central:
90's will be common-place especially for inland and western zones, and another bout of 100°F readings will likely strike New Mexico and Texas before May concludes.

Being at the epicenter of our "Omega" or "Horseshoe" Summer pattern, these aforementioned States will be most consistently under the influence of ridging, subsidence and compressional warming, almost regardless of how the Hemispheric patterns oscillate this Summer.

Northwest:
Warm 90°F readings across Washington, Oregon, Idaho are just about over, as much cooler (or seasonable) and cloudier/damper weather evolves in wake of eastward-shifting ridge as Summer approaches.

While southern zones got copious amounts of precipitation in 2006, stream-flow prospects for Montana, Washington and British Columbia are average, and emerging drought for western Washington and Oregon should be monitored for potential brief bouts of heat during the Summer.

Southwest:
Like its Northwestern neighbors, California will cool significantly in coming days; recent searing heat (8 straight days breaking 100°F in Palm Springs and Phoenix, 6 straight days breaking 99°F in Las Vegas) will also vanish across desert sections of California, Nevada and Arizona, but they will quickly resume warm temperatures under the ridging's western flanks and the underlying drought.

Southeastern locations (Tucson, Phoenix, Las Vegas) plagued by drought, and Northwestern locations (San Francisco, Sacramento) impacted more by Pacific Coastal troughs, should make for quite a heterogeneous Summer for the Southwest quadrant of the Nation.

2006 Hurricane Season Outlook Update:

We released updates to our 2006 (Atlantic) Hurricane Season Outlook. Should you have any questions regarding outlooks put forth by NOAA/NHC, CSU or other outlooks (or even hype) you hear about in the news, we'd be happy to discuss, comment and/or explain them to you.


Forecasting the Forecast:

Weak signals are present in today's model runs, so look for lower confidence outlooks this afternoon. Above normal temperatures should remain over the South-Central and Southeast, and below normal temperatures over the Northwest. Some minor warmth may spill farther up the Atlantic coast.