US Weather Commentary

Since February we've been hi-lighting the prevailing weather themes our research concluded for the June - September 2006 Summer Season.  With the month of June only 2 weeks away, the weather this Spring has both reinforced and refined this outlook. To help you better prepare for the weather this Summer as a whole, as well as the weekly twists & turns, we will be including key climate & forecast bullet-points in our discussions, for each of 6 spatial U.S. zones:

Northeast:

Long-Term saturated ground over New England (although note quite the opposite in the Capital region) and the eastern Great Lakes was a key element to our milder Summer outlook, and record flooding over the past week is only clinching this hydro-meteorological impact heading into late-May and June.

While bouts of mugginess need to be eyed, routine troughiness (-NAO) will help ensure that locations such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Burlington and Hartford will have some of the most significant reductions in cumulative Cooling Degree Days from Summer 2005 to Summer 2006.

Southeast:

Recent spring storms have taken a localized bite out of poor soil moisture conditions, but significant drought is worsening especially across the Southern Appalachians and Florida (where wildfires are becoming common).

With (warmer) ridging soon shifting eastward, critical days (i.e. days > 90°F) could be more numerous than in 2005, and with Hurricane Season almost upon us, substantial stresses on both the Agricultural and Energy Industries are likely.

North-Central:

Mathematical warmth (i.e. days > +5°F) will be more of a theme than pragmatic warmth (i.e. days >90°F), as locations like Minneapolis and Chicago will soon warm, but with substantial reductions in cumulative Cooling Degree days from Summer 2005 to Summer 2006.

Parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri and Illinois need to closely be monitored for emerging drought and thus the prospects of surface-enhanced heat-waves during the Summer.

South Central:

Of all the populated regions that could give the record-setting Summer of 2005 a run for its money, Spring heat waves and heat spikes have already given States such as Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado and New Mexico a big head start with both CDD and Critical Day tallies.

Being at the epicenter of our "Omega" or "Horseshoe" Summer pattern, these aforementioned States will be most consistently under the influence of ridging, subsidence and compressional warming, almost regardless of how the Hemispheric patterns oscillate this Summer.

Northwest:

With Western States having more of a July-October Summer Season, recent warmth across the Northwest should be viewed as "pleasant Spring weather", and will be rather short-lived as the milder Summer patterns take shape.

While southern zones got copious amounts of precipitation in 2006, stream-flow prospects for Montana, Washington and British Columbia are average, and emerging drought for western Washington and Oregon should be monitored for potential brief bouts of heat during the Summer.

Southwest:

Arizona, similar to its South-Central neighbors, has gotten quickly out of the starting blocks, and Phoenix (no thanks to the 4 Winter months without a drop of rain) could approach a record for May Cooling Degree Days.

Southeastern locations (Tucson, Phoenix, Las Vegas) plagued by drought, and Northwestern locations (San Francisco, Sacramento) impacted more by Pacific Coastal troughs, should make for quite a heterogeneous Summer for the Southwest quadrant of the Nation.

2006 Hurricane Season Outlook Update:

On May 10th, we released updates to our 2006 (Atlantic) Hurricane Season Outlook.  Should you have any questions regarding outlooks put forth by NOAA/NHC, CSU or other outlooks (or even hype) you hear about in the news, we'd be happy to discuss, comment and explain them to you.

Forecasting the Forecast:

NWS outlooks made strides in the right direction in yesterday's 8-14 days maps, centering the warmth over the Plains and keeping the edges of the Nation on the cool side. This theme will continue today, but expect the 6-10 day maps to also add cool temperatures to the Western Seaboard.

From previous discussions, re-included for pertinence:

In one of the latest rounds of pre-Season heat (that commenced on March 1st), Corpus Christi hit 103°F yesterday while Loredo TX hit 112°F.  By May 10th, this was already the 8th day that Corpus Christi has broken 90°F (while they normally only do so 6 times the entire month), and typically break 100°F in May on one day every 10 years!

The West-Ridge/East-Trough pattern that we are most familiar with in Wintertime, but that also plagued May 2005, will be with us through the medium-term, further supported by a negative-phased NAO.  As we progress through May, we will see this pattern slowly transform into more of a Trough-Ridge-Trough alignment, which we have believed will be the general theme for the June-September 2006 Summer Season.