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UPPER MARLBORO, Maryland, US, May 17, 2006
(Refocus Weekly)
The concept of zero-energy homes could begin to
diffuse into the U.S. residential market by 2012, and save 19% of
all energy consumption in single-family homes by 2050.
“Zero energy homes are technically feasible today,” says the
National Association of Home Builders in its study, ‘The Potential
Impact of ZEH.’ The NAHB Research Center developed the report with
the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory to examine the long-term outlook for ZEH technologies in
the new home market and their potential impact on U.S. energy
consumption.
“If cost trends continue and research milestones are accomplished in
solar energy and efficiency technologies, ZEH will eventually become
economically competitive with conventional construction when utility
costs are included in the cost of home ownership,” it notes. ZEHs
could be moving into the mainstream housing market as early as 2012
and could reduce energy consumption among all single-family homes by
19% by 2050, even as more than one million new homes are added each
year.
As the cost of solar PV systems declines and PV production increases
30% a year, “the market penetration of these highly-efficient homes
has already begun and will continue in selected markets,” the study
notes. ZEH will get a further push from low-cost solar thermal water
heating designs under development now, complementing the portfolio
of energy-efficiency improvements in appliances, building envelopes,
windows and mechanical systems that is also moving into the market.
Zero energy homes are connected to the grid, and combine
energy-efficient design and technology with solar electric and
thermal systems to produce as much energy as they use on an annual
basis, resulting in net zero energy consumption. The first ZEH in
the U.S. was built in Arizona in 2003.
An increase in popularity of ‘Energy Star’ homes indicates that home
buyers are starting to embrace many concepts behind ZEH, the report
explains. The first Energy Star home was built in 1995 and 130,000
built in 2004, with 40% penetration in some markets.
“ZEH can have a significant market penetration by 2050 given
government programs to support its development,” it notes. The
projected share of ZEH among new housing starts in 2050 is 67% if
there is a 30% tax credit and, under the most aggressive scenario,
“total energy consumption of U.S. single-family homes will level off
by approximately 2030 and continue to decline in following years.”
Tax credits and other financial incentives for both home-buyers and
home-builders are essential for near-term market adoption of ZEN,
and market acceptance of the concept among both groups is “crucial
to its adoption by the U.S. housing industry,” the report concludes.
Active participation by electric utilities in the development and
promotion of ZEH will help to solidify consumer acceptance and,
without utility participation, “technical difficulties with system
integration and net-metering regulations may stifle ZEH
implementation.”
“Near-term action can have a major influence on the ultimate impact
of ZEH on the energy consumption of single-family homes, even though
the relatively slow replacement of housing stock and historically
slow diffusion of new technology in the building industry will mean
decades before ZEH can reach its full market potential,”it explains.
“Lack of near-term action will result in a lengthening of the time
for ZEH to have an impact on the market.”
NAHB’s Research Center promotes innovation in housing technology and
its seal is recognized internationally as a mark of product quality
and performance.
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