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BRUSSELS, Belgium, August 30, 2006 (Refocus
Weekly)
The share of renewable energies could reach 20%
by 2020 in Europe, under a combined scenario of high energy
efficiency and high renewables.
The report, ‘European energy & transport - Scenarios on energy
efficiency & renewables,’ was prepared by the European Commission’s
energy directorate. It examines several scenarios in efficiency and
renewables, reflecting policies which currently are under
discussion, and the scenarios include one of high energy efficiency
and one of high renewables, and a combined scenario of a high
efficiency and high renewables in which the share of renewables
reaches 20% in 2020.
The results were derived from the PRIMES model by a consortium led
by the National Technical University of Athens, and provides
projections to 2030 with details on energy demand, transformation,
imports and production by fuel and sector. The report also gives a
breakdown for six different regions: EU-25, EU-15, EU-10, EU-27,
EU-28 and Europe-30.
“Energy efficiency and renewables are central to EU and Member
States’ energy and climate policies as they contribute substantially
towards reducing CO2 emissions, helping to meet EU’s international
obligations, either through curbing energy demand or through
providing alternative carbon free supplies,” say authors L. Mantzos
and P. Capros. The importance of efficiency and renewables policies
is emphasized in the recent Green Paper on a European strategy for
sustainable, competitive and secure energy, and the European
Commission has undertaken a number of policies and measures towards
improving efficiency and increasing the contribution of renewables.
The ‘high renewables’ scenario assumes that additional incentives
are provided both to energy consumers and energy producers so that
the global indicative target of a 12% contribution from renewables
to gross energy consumption in 2010 is reached. Strengthening of
these incentives beyond 2010 is assumed towards achieving a
contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy
consumption close to 20% in 2020.
Demand for all energy forms declines compared to the baseline
projections, with the biggest fall projected for nuclear and solid
fuels. A slowdown in electricity demand growth, due to greater
energy efficiency, and higher exploitation of co-generation in the
power generation sector means both nuclear and solid fuels lose
market share in primary energy needs, while the share of oil
increases 3.1 percentage points over baseline by 2030, while
renewables rise 1.1 percentage points and natural gas rises 1.0
percentage points from baseline.
“Better energy efficiency makes a small contribution towards
increasing the share of renewables in the medium and long term
(about one percentage point more) due to reduced overall energy
demand,” while limiting the growth of electricity demand causes
energy efficiency to curtail the potential for green power (notably
wind), it explains.
“The EU has been supporting renewable energy sources for some time
notably through Directives on electricity from renewables and on
biofuels,” while the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the
process of integrating the environment into energy policy will
underpin a greater role of renewables, it explains. The
long-standing objective to reach a share from renewables of 12% in
gross energy consumption may be complemented by a target for 2015
and/or 2020, with the conclusions of the European Council of March
2006 mention a share of renewables of 15% in 2015, and a share of
20% for 2020 is under discussion.
“Strong action on renewables in the ‘high renewables’ case lead to
significant changes in the future evolution of the fuel mix while
overall primary energy demand remains essentially unchanged from
baseline levels in 2010, exhibiting a limited decline thereafter of
-1.8% below the baseline in 2030,” it explains. “There are
significant changes in the fuel mix with demand for renewables
growing at rates well above those in the baseline scenario (5.2% pa
in 2000-2030 compared to 3.0% pa in the baseline), a growth that
occurs to the detriment of all other energy forms.”
In 2010, renewables account for 11.6% of primary energy needs (a
rise of +3.6 percentage points from baseline levels). In 2020, the
use of renewables in the EU-25 energy system increases by 84% from
baseline levels with their share reaching 19.3% compared to 10.4% in
baseline, and “an even higher renewables share can be achieved with
the same intensity of renewables promotion if renewables policies
are combined with energy efficiency policies.”
“The further strengthening of promoting policies for renewables up
to 2030 leads to an increase of the renewables share reaching 24.0%
(+11.8 percentage point from baseline),” it adds. “Higher
exploitation of biomass and waste is the key driver for the
substantial increase of the renewables share accounting for about
70% of incremental renewables demand.”
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