Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Aug 30 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to a coronal hole high speed stream, however, velocity is steadily decreasing as this coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the forecast period (31 August - 02 September). Towards the end of the forecast period another coronal hole high speed stream will rotate into a geoeffective position and its effects may be seen on day three of the forecast period though the timing is imprecise.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 30 Aug 074

Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 075/075/070

90 Day Mean 30 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 009/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 002/005-004/005-004/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/01