Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 909 (S09W80) produced multiple B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a B7 flare at 13/0416Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (14-16 Sep). Isolated active conditions are possible on 16 Sep as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 083
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01