Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2006

 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a minor storm period observed by Boulder Magnetometer from 0900 - 1200Z. Solar wind speed increased to about 500 km/s during the reporting period due to the geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods on 18 September due to continuing effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 19 - 20 September.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 078
Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 17 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 008/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01