Although the imminent exhaustion of the world’s fossil fuel would certainly propel us to the Solar Hydrogen Economy, we need the fossil fuel to make the transition. Therefore, we need to have some idea as to when it might be exhausted. The U.S. has a 100 years supply of coal while Russia and China have even larger sources. From 1900 on, the U.S. production of primary oil grew in a steep curve that peaked in 1970. Our production has been going down ever since. Geologists have searched the globe for major oil fields and none have been found to equal the Saudi fields. Even our Arctic fields and the North Sea fields are just a drop in the bucket compared to the Saudi fields. There are various estimates for the Saudi primary oil production to peak from 2012 to 2020 to be followed by an exponential decline. The Soviet Union, Brunei, Libya, Iran and Indonesia have already reached peak primary oil production and are declining. Recently, it was estimated that the world’s oil production will peak in 2020.

Most secondary oil fields in the U.S. and other countries, requiring higher costs for extraction, have not been fully tapped. Due to the recent high prices for oil, oil recovery from oil shale is now looking profitable but more development work needs to be done. The U.S. has very large oil shale deposits with estimates twice as large as the total Saudi fields. However, it will be 20 years before the oil shale extraction achieves commercialization. Disregarding the oil shale approach, the current primary U.S. oil could be exhausted by 2030. However, regardless of the date of exhaustion, we need to rid ourselves of fossil fuel addiction, its geopolitical problems and global warming problem and move quickly to renewable energy.

Why do you believe the U.S. lags behind in the transition to renewable energy compared to Europe and Japan?

There are several factors that have led Europe and Japan to be ahead of the U.S. in the transition to renewable energy. For many years, Europe has had higher energy costs than the U.S., which makes renewable energy more price attractive for them. When the U.S. price of gasoline reaches $4.60/gallon in 2007, it will be competitive with hydrogen for fuel cell autos. It is already nearly $7/gallon in Amsterdam.

In Europe, there is also greater support by the Governments. Consequently, European legislative policies and proposals are moving toward full renewable energy implementation. The European Commission on Sustainable Energy has been a strong factor in a campaign for 100 European communities to meet 100% of their energy needs via renewable energy. In 1999, Europe had 6% of its energy needs met by renewables while in the U.S., it was less than 3%. By 2010, the European goal is to have 12% of its energy needs met by renewable energy. As a result of European efforts in 2004, Germany alone installed four times the number of megawatts of PV cells than the U.S. Japan has very little oil and coal deposits and must import 98% of its coal. Hence, Japan, as a national goal, committed very early to moving toward renewable energy such as solar.

Do you believe the petroleum companies will take the lead with the development of fuel cells?

No. They are focused on selling petroleum products. However, they may buy out leading fuel cell R & D and manufacturing companies. As a note, Shell Oil has started businesses in wind power, PV cells and hydrogen. British Petroleum is into PV cell production.

Which renewable energy based form of producing hydrogen do you believe will take the lead: Solar or wind power?

Actually, both. Of the renewables, the wind power now generates the least expensive electricity. In Minot, N. Dakota there is already a wind-power-to-hydrogen facility being built for the N. Dakota Basin Electric Power Cooperative. Wind power has the advantage since it can blow at all hours of the day and night. A solar-Stirling engine is more efficient in converting solar power than PV cells (30-35% vs. 17%). Six Stirling engines (25 kW each) using Stirling Engine Systems, Inc.(SES) units with solar reflectors have been operating at Sandia’s New Mexico site for a year. In late 2005, SES signed two major contracts with Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric to provide a 500 MWe (expandable to 850 MWe) and 300 MWe (expandable to 500 MWe) solar Stirling array systems, respectively. Both will generate electricity at current electric rates. These major contracts will bring down the price of home/Stirling engine systems. However, currently, for home use and for those areas where the wind blows day and night, wind power would be the choice for hydrogen production. For those other areas, the solar-Stirling engine would be the choice.

Do you believe the decentralization feature of the Solar-Hydrogen economy would go as far as each home having their own small-scale power generation unit to fuel their car and power their home?

I am glad you asked that. It has already happened. A solar-hydrogen house has just been finished (2006) in north Scottsdale Arizona, which will be the first in the U.S. The owner, Bryan Beaulieu, is a mechanical engineer with 20 patents in structural systems. Mr. Beaulieu has been working with the American Hydrogen Association and the City of Scottsdale’s Green Building Program to design the most sustainable desert home possible. His central focus is to produce hydrogen as a fuel for heating, cooking, electric generators and auto fuel. There are others planning similar homes.

How long do you believe it will take to restructure the Petroleum Economy into the Solar-Hydrogen Economy?

This is a difficult question. The transition to the Solar-Hydrogen Economy is dependent on how fast we can mobilize industry and Government to restructure the Petroleum Economy and how many dollars are put into the transition.

There is a way to estimate the length of time. For example, the total U.S. energy expenditures would be a good measuring tool for the transition time. Our total energy expenditures was $992 billion (2005) and represents about 8% of our GNP. Interestingly, there is a general curve that governs change in many processes both in science and human phenomenon. It is called the “logistic” or sigmoid curve. For discussion, this logistic model can be developed as a time vs. Solar-Hydrogen Economy growth curve.(see curves I and II). In terms of the Solar-Hydrogen Economy, currently, we are at 3.5% renewable energy expenditures, which is just at the middle of the exponential growth on both curves. I would expect the linear portion to start at 8% and continue until 93% is reached. At that point, it will level off asymptotically until we reach a maximum. You will notice that the Petroleum Economy curve finally levels off at $100 billion. We will still need some petroleum products such as lubricants and plastic monomers until the renewables can overtake these areas.

The Prediction Curves I and II shown below illustrate two possible time-lines for the transition. For case I, if we reach the 8% level by 2010 and then have a linear growth of 8.5% per year, it would be 10 years (then 2020) before we would be at 93% of the original Petroleum Economy level. But, this is very optimistic. For case II, a 3% per year linear growth would take 28 years (then 2038) to reach the 93%. I believe a 3% growth is more realistic. However, there is one key obstacle that will delay the Solar-Hydrogen economy from reaching the 8% point and that is the cost of the fuel cell for autos. Curves I and II assume that the fuel cell cost will be economically viable by 2010 and the linear growth would start. But, if the recent developments in fuel cells, i.e. polymers, take 10 years to be translated into fuel cells at a lower price, then it would be 2015 before we reach the 8% mark. Thus, for case II, it would be 2048 before the 93% is achieved.

Honda has recently announced that it will have 50,000 fuel cell cars on the road starting in 2010.. This confirms my earlier estimate of 2010 for reaching the 8% growth.

I believe our $12.4 trillion dollar GNP (2005) will suffer a rapid decrease with a possible depression during this transition. What we need is for the Government to take a strong lead, like the European Governments, in this transition. In any event, the Solar-Hydrogen Economy is the greatest financial opportunity in our history. The past Internet growth will pale by comparison.

With the increasing cost of natural gas, do you think it will be cost effective to use natural gas to produce hydrogen until the renewable energy based systems are available?

Yes and no. For a selected market of single point large hydrogen users, the cracking of natural gas would be acceptable for a short time. However, it takes a large amount of energy to “crack” natural gas to hydrogen over a catalyst as is now done at high temperatures in refineries. This energy can be supplied via solar-thermal or the burning of natural gas to heat the catalyst bed. Consequently, it would take huge quantities of natural gas that would drive up the price even faster.

For the rest of the renewable energy market segments, the answer is no. It is too energy intensive. Consequently, for fuel cell auto refueling stations and other Solar-Hydrogen market segments, small solar-electrolytic hydrogen generation units at “point of use” would be better.

Do you believe that nuclear power has a future in the Solar-hydrogen Economy?

No. For many reasons. The 1980's witnessed a virtual worldwide collapse of orders for nuclear power plants. The previous 10 years (1970-1980) had been marked by frequent technical mishaps, serious accidents, huge cost escalations and a rapid decline in public acceptance of nuclear power. Since 1987, many European countries have abandoned the use of nuclear energy. Austria, Sweden and Italy voted to oppose or phase out nuclear power. Belgium, Germany, Netherlands and Spain decided not build new nuclear plants and intend to phase out nuclear power. The reason for the collapse of nuclear power include: safety problems, inability to dispose of nuclear waste, and the potential uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear materials in the hands of terrorists and the dwindling supply of uranium. In addition, during the late ‘80s and early ‘90s, the Three-Mile Island, Chernobyl and the Monju breeder (Japan) nuclear incidents led the death knell of the nuclear industry.

Controlled nuclear fusion power generation, i.e. hydrogen fusion, is also not an option. In 1950, Dr. Edward Teller theorized the existence of nuclear fusion. However, even with heavy Government funding in the intervening 50 years, there has not been any demonstrated sustainable controlled nuclear fusion power source. Nuclear fusion research is now waiting on advances in superconducting magnets and new alloys for high temperature containment. Both of these are large technical obstacles. In addition, there is only a 100 years’ supply of the lithium-tritium fuel. Even with massive Government funding, nuclear fusion would not be expected to be commercialized until after 2060 if at all. Thus, nuclear fusion will NOT be available when the remaining fossil fuel supply is exhausted. We now have to quickly develop renewable energy while we still have sufficient fossil fuel to make the transition.

Do you believe the Bush Administration is driven enough to restructure our country into the Solar-hydrogen Economy?

No, not for President Bush’s first term and for the first 2.5 years of his second term. President Bush is slowly coming around, though. However, we need a more aggressive and determined next President to mobilize us into the Solar-Hydrogen Economy similar to Europe’s positive legislative actions.

Do you believe one of the key factors that will drive the movement is how quickly the automakers will develop the fuel cell auto?

Yes. Another key factor is the growth of the number of hydrogen fueling stations. The major U.S. automakers are reluctant to move forward into production until the cost of fuel cells are economical and sufficient hydrogen fueling stations are available. Consequently, both of these are key factors in moving from the exponential and up through the linear portions of the growth curves I and II shown above.

Japan and Honda, in particular, are considered the leaders in fuel cell technology. Honda, in October 2005, revealed at the Tokyo Motor Show their new FCX-3V hydrogen auto with a redesigned fuel cell system that delivers more power (100 kW) and increased range in less space than previous ones. By using a vertical mounted fuel cell, the “3V” will start at -40 F (-20 C) solving one of the last problems facing the automakers. It also has a 5 kg hydrogen adsorption-type storage tank (350 atmospheres) that gives a driving range of 350 miles, which exceeds DOE’s target for 2010.

GM threw out their “automotive thinking” and have already designed and built a model fuel cell car from the “ground up”. GM aims to have a production-ready hydrogen auto by 2010 with a fuel cell that costs $5,000. At that time, GM can “ramp up” production in 1-2 years. Daimler-Chrysler already has 100 fuel cell autos and buses in worldwide use, which is more than any other automaker. Their fuel cells have been in operation for more than 2,000 hours without any loss of performance, which is much longer than the engineers expected. Thirty-six of their buses have had 75,000 hours of operation and traveled 1.1 million kilometers. In April 2006, Daimler-Chrysler delivered its first fuel cell police car to the Wayne State University Police Department as a prototype.

How responsive do you believe the automakers and major oil companies will be to the transition from Petroleum to Solar-Hydrogen?

In the past, there has been some major “foot-dragging” and reluctance by the major automakers and oil companies to move forward due to their basic business interest. The Petroleum Economy is their main “bread and butter” income. But, they will become responsive when the two major obstacles are overcome, i.e. cost of fuel cells and sufficient number of hydrogen fueling stations are open. Subsequently, there is some encouraging news. The major automakers are moving forward with prototypes and model fuel cell cars. Both Chevron and Shell have opened hydrogen fueling stations in Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., with more planned. Los Angeles will shortly have 21 hydrogen fueling stations and eight in the San Francisco area.. I believe consumers are ready and willing to purchase fuel cell autos at a reasonable price.

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