Weather Risk - The ENSO Report

 An excerpt from The ENSO Report (El Nino / Southern Oscillation Predictions and Analysis). The ENSO Report is a long range weather outlook researched and produced Weather2000, Inc. The full report is available by contacting info@weather2000.com.

ENSO status has climbed to “slightly warm” conditions the past several months [> 0.1°F in region 3.4 since June 2006].  Short term forecasters and the media have a tendency to read too much into weekly ENSO status values, so understand that it is the multi-month running average that is pertinent for research and predictive purposes.  Specifically, the 3-month running mean of region 3.4 needs to be at a +0.5°F anomaly for at least 5 consecutive months to be considered an El Niño event, and our research standards are even more stringent requiring a +0.8°F anomaly.  This is critical because “weak” or “slightly warm” ENSO conditions often translate into very different climate signals for the U.S. than a legitimate El Niño event would.  A very similar scenario of ENSO misunderstandings by other forecasters unfolded in Autumn 2002, with dramatic “surprises” in the Winter Season that ensued.  So for the 5^th Autumn in a row now, Teleconnections will be the main monthly/Seasonal factors to monitor and anticipate, which include the AO, NAO, PNA, WPO and EPO amongst others, with of course a proper factoring in of certain sustained ENSO levels.

{Our weak ENSO status at present is not at all surprising considering our multi-decadal research still monitors a strengthening of the Atlantic ThermoHaline Circulation occurring over a few years now.  These conveyor belt circulation patterns of the Atlantic Ocean, driven by temperature and salinity gradients, is an enormously powerful mechanism for shaping North American weather regimes for decades on end.  Failure by other forecasters to understand, or account for, this process has led to the bungling of the last few Winters’ forecasts, and continual underestimation of Hemispheric Teleconnections. During the next 2 decades we believe (1.) El Niño Events will be muted & La Niña Events will be more numerous; (2.) Tele-Connection Phase Signs will support more harsh Winters in the East-Half U.S. [as we have seen the last 4 Winters]; and (3.) Atlantic Hurricane Seasons will be much more active and dangerous than usual.  Consecutive Cold Seasons & routine Hurricane land threats [reminiscent of post-WW II into the 1970’s] is something we will again contend with as the “norm” for years to come.}

Summer 2006 clearly produced one of the Hottest U.S. Summers in the Central Corridor and Southern States, as well as a markedly cooler (than 2005) and mild Summer for the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States,andin line with our original “Omega” pattern forecast advisories made last Winter. While the worst blistering heat & humidity is now behind us, substantial positive temperature anomalies are still likely, as such drought-dominated patterns tend to have thermal inertia that carry some above normal themes into Autumn, before it hands the reins over to Winter.

Autumn months notoriously have the lowest predictive skill, but our research has drummed up some interesting findings for the balance of 2006. Eastern and Central regions of the Nation should witness a sizeable and significant ‘Indian Summer’ episode(s) this Autumn, alternating with waves of early Winter chilliness.  These dramatic swings could be most stark in the month of November where milder weather is more supported in the first-half and much colder weather is supported in the second-half, creating the shocking “flip” we’ve witnessed a few times this decade.

Ironically, the same drought conditions and low soil moisture levels which helped propel the phenomenal heat spikes we witnessed this Summer across the Central U.S. and Gulf Coast States, will also help the same areas cool off at night in the coming months.   While fresh snow has the highest albedo and greatest radiative properties, dry ground coupled with clear skies, low dew points and light winds, can really support overnight temperatures to plummet.  This could result in some unusual early-Season frost and hard-freeze events as far south as the Gulf coastal region.

With the Great Lakes’ water temperatures at very warm levels again in 2006, any Autumnal warm spells will only sustain this surface warmth up to the door-step of Winter.  Subsequently, we are anticipating another heavy and frequent Lake Effect Snow season for the conclusion of 2006.  Unlike other snowstorms, which are usually associated with a Surface Low, lake-effect snowfall production is triggered by, and is proportional to, the temperature difference (between 850 Mb and the surface lake water).  Besides the local impacts to down-wind locales, an early and intense Lake-Effect Snow Season can have far-reaching and long-lasting cooling and albedo impacts as far away as the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Conversely, very Mild/Warm Winter signals are in place for most States West of the Mississippi River, which has been a recurring theme this Decade. Western States and locations closest to Canada and the Plains will occasionally get side-swiped by Winter Troughs, but any sustained cold looks to be extremely localized, infrequent, and concentrated mostly in the Autumn.  We are anticipating some “Pineapple Express” events this Winter that will funnel moisture streams into the Southwest States (and flash-flooding/mud-slides), but after some minor relief last year most Northwestern States will resume their long-term drought, meager stream-flow and corresponding forest/wild fires, all prevalent since 1999.

Despite the surprising patterns of January 2006, our research points to yet another snowy, volatile and cold Winter Season likely in store for the Eastern U.S. in 2006-2007.  Having never had more than 2 consecutive Winters with at least 40 inches of snow, New York City will now be eying its 5 consecutive such Winter.  While the previous 2 Winters yielded some very frigid weeks and months for the East/Northeast during early and late stages of the Winter Season, this Winter should feature a little more of the consistency we witnessed during 2002-2003.

Tropical Storms have developed at a slightly above-normal pace, but a mere shadow of last year’s record-shattering season, as we psychologically warned.More detailed updates will be provided in our Tropical Storm Discussions and Alerts throughout the Autumn.

{With ENSO only a modest factor over the next 6 months, reliance on recent trends, averages and “analog” years will lead to many false or misleading conclusions.  It is because of this that we strongly advise that site-specific forecasts be conducted in order to uncover these details for you: http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html.  Our statistical reports for Fall & Winter 2006-2007 are now available!  These analyses of Degree Days, Extreme temperature occurrences, Snowfall and multi-variable structures, incorporate our micro-scale as well as macro-scale atmospheric/hydrologic research.  These forecasts have achieved high positive skill for the past 8 consecutive Seasons, and are always customized and available upon request.}

Some weather impacts on NORTH AMERICA that will be notable are as follows:

ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL (SNOWFALL):

MINIMAL RAINFALL (SNOWFALL) / DROUGHT:

ABNORMAL COLD (COOL):

ABNORMAL HEAT (WARMTH):

Some weather impacts GLOBALLY that will be particularly intense, are as follows:

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (SNOWFALL) / FLOODING:

MINIMAL RAINFALL (SNOWFALL) / DROUGHT:

ABNORMAL COLD (COOL):

ABNORMAL HEAT (WARMTH):

For a complete listing of our Weather Forecast and Research Products & Services please visit: <http://www.weather2000.com/products/products.html>

This Report by Weather 2000, Inc., is subject to these terms and conditions:
(1) This Report is for the exclusive use of RiskCenter, and is not to be used in connection with, or for the purpose of any advertising or endorsement unless expressly authorized in writing by Weather 2000, Inc. (2)  Under no circumstances will the issuing of this Report involve Weather 2000, Inc., as a party or agent, or in any other way in any relationship, contractual or otherwise, between RiskCenter and any other party. (3)  In the event that this Report shall be proven to be inaccurate and that this inaccuracy shall have been caused by the act or default of Weather 2000, Inc., then the liability of Weather 2000, Inc., shall be none.  Under no circumstances shall Weather 2000, Inc., be liable to compensate or indemnify RiskCenter or any third party, for or in respect of, any consequential loss or damage sustained by any such party as a result of the inaccuracy of this Report.