by Scott Sullivan

10-11-06

President Bush has a dream. Just as Richard Nixon realigned global politics by going to Beijing, President Bush will do the same by going to Tehran and Caracas. In Bush's vision, he is the only one who can cut a deal and assert US interests with Ahmadinejad and Chavez, just as Nixon asserted US interests with China.
In one dramatic move, or so he fantasizes, Bush will be magically transformed from a loser to a man of destiny.

This Bush orientation to Iran and Venezuela is evident by Bush's deliberate sabotage of Republican fortunes in the mid-term elections that brought the Democratic Party to power in the House and Senate. A Republican Congress would have resisted Bush overtures to Ahmadinejad and Chavez. Bush hopes a Democratic Congress will be more pliable.
This shift in US orientation to Ahmadinejad and Chavez is also evident by Bush's dismissal of Rumsfeld as SECDEF, including the timing of his dismissal. Rumsfeld had to go because, as a protégé and admirer of Richard Nixon, he would have regarded such a Bush outreach to Tehran and Caracas as a mistake.

Moreover, Rumsfeld had considerable DoD intelligence assets with which to oppose an appeasement policy. Bush's nightmare was that Rumsfeld would join up with a Republican Congress to oppose an appeasement policy. As a result, Rumsfeld was dismissed and replaced by the ever more pliable Robert Gates, who would bring DoD's intelligence assets under CIA control.
President Bush also timed Rumsfeld's dismissal in a way that did the maximum damage to continued Republican control of Congress. If Bush had announced Rumsfeld's dismissal in October, he could have neutralized the Iraq issue in the elections, thus salvaging Republican control of Congress. In this sense, the Democratic Party owes President Bush a huge vote of thanks.

It can be said that Bush and the Democrats are now thrown together in partnership, due to Bush's strategy on Rumsfeld. Bush will draw upon this partnership to gain congressional approval for diplomatic openings to Ahmadinejad, Chavez, and their allies.
Let's begin with Nicaragua and Bolivia. In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega has just returned to power after thirteen years in the political wilderness. In Bolivia, Hugo Chavez has convinced Evo Morales to confront Brazil by permitting Venezuela to build several military bases on Bolivian territory.

These two highly provocative moves should draw a strong US response. Instead, President Bush, backed by his new Democratic Congress, will appease Ortega, Morales, and Chavez. As a result, Bush has decisively affirmed the Bush-Ahmadinejad-Chavez Axis, while Brazil, not the US, will have to scramble to find a way to contain the Chavez threat while Bush improves relations with Chavez.
Just as President Bush will reach out to Chavez, he will reach out to Ahmadinejad. Thus, Bush appoints Robert Gates as Rumsfeld's successor. Most observers believe the appointment of Robert Gates will lead to major changes in US policy on Iraq. In truth, only one majorchange will emerge.

The US policy of covert support for Iran in Iraq and the region will be elevated to a policy of overt support for Iran. To this end, the US will take even a softer line on Iran's nuclear weapons program; i.e. the US will issue fewer empty threats against Iran to employ sanctions to deter Iranian nukes. In Iraq, the US will ramp up cooperation with Iran using the pretext of planning for the withdrawal of US troops.
As US troops are withdrawn or redeployed to Baghdad, the US will transfer political power in strategic cities like Basra to Iran and its local allies (e.g., SCIRI and the Badr Brigades). Moreover, the US will join Iran in pressing Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to suppress Muqtada al-Sadr and the Mahdi Army.

In line with his policy, the US will redeploy its troops to Baghdad for a final showdown with Muqtada al-Sadr, while Iran stays safely on the sidelines. Lastly, the US, along with Iran, will continue to push for the break-up of Iraq into three ethnic states.
Once this break-up occurs, and Iran is able to annex southern Iraq and Basra, Iran is convinced it will become the superpower of the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and eventually Central Asia.

Robert Gates is the pivotal figure in President Bush's outreach to Ahmadinejad and Chavez. Gates has even provided a handy roadmap for a break though in US-Iran relations in a 2004 report for the Council for Foreign Relations (see "Robert Gates, the anti-Rumsfeld," IHT, 9 November 2006).
In short, for President Bush to achieve his breakthrough with Ahmadinejad and Chavez, Secretary Rumsfeld and the Republican Congress had to go. Now, how far will the Democratic Congress go to support Bush's appeasement plan?

Scott Sullivan is a former Washington government employee. PetroleumWorld not necessarily share these views.