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WASHINGTON, DC, US, December 13, 2006 (Refocus
Weekly)
Consumption of green fuels by 2012 in the United
States will “far exceed” the legislated goal of 7.5 billion gallons,
according to the latest projections from the Department of Energy.
“Projected energy prices and recently enacted public policy help
to support greater use of alternative fuels” such as ethanol and
biodiesel, says DOE’s Energy Information Administration in its 2007
‘Annual Energy Outlook’ reference case. The use of ethanol will grow
from 4 billion gallons in 2005 to 11.2 billion gallons in 2012, and
14.6 billion gallons in 2030, to provide 8% of total gasoline
consumption by volume.
The Outlook projects growth in nuclear capacity and generation, more
consumption of biofuels (both ethanol and biodiesel), growth in
coal-to-liquids, higher demand for unconventional transportation
technologies, and accelerated improvements in energy efficiency
throughout the economy.
Despite the projected rapid growth of non-hydro renewables and an
expectation of new nuclear reactors, oil, coal and natural gas are
expected to provide roughly the same 86% share of total U.S. primary
energy in 2030 as they did in 2005, unless there are changes in
existing laws and regulations. “This reflects a situation in which
rapid growth in the use of biofuels and other non-hydro renewable
energy sources begins from a very low current share of total energy
use, the share of a growing electricity market supplied from nuclear
power falls despite projected new plant builds, and hydroelectric
power production, which accounts for the bulk of current renewable
electricity supply, is stagnant.”
The reference case projects that total nuclear capacity will grow to
112.6 GW in 2030, with total output growing from 780 billion kWh in
2005 to 896 b-kWh in 2030, although the share of nuclear will fall
from 20% in 2005 to 15% in 2030. Consumption of natural gas will
grow to 26.1 trillion cubic feet in 2030, down from estimates of 30
tcf in recent forecasts, due to projected price increases which
“significantly cut the expected growth of natural gas use for
electricity generation” between 2020 and 2030. Coal will play a
growing role for power generation, and will increase from 22.9 quads
in 2005 to 34 quads in 2030.
Total energy demand in the U.S. will increase from 100.2 to 131.2
quads between 2005 and 2030, an average annual increase of 1.1%.
Average prices for electricity will peak at 8.3¢/kWh this year and
decline to a low of 7.7¢ in 2015 before increasing to 8.1¢ per kWh
in 2030 (13¢ in non-constant dollars).
Consumption of renewable fuels will grow from 6.5 quads in 2005 to
10.2 in 2030, with more than half of the demand for grid-related
power generation, including combined heat and power, and the rest
for dispersed heating and cooling, industrial uses and fuel
blending.
“The use of renewable technologies for electricity generation is
projected to grow, stimulated by improved technology, higher fossil
fuel prices, and extended tax credits in EPACT2005,” and the report
assumes the federal production tax credit for green power will be
extended and expanded through December 2007. Total renewable
generation in the reference case, including CHP and end-use
generation, will grow from 357 billion kWh in 2005 to 519 b-kWh in
2030.
Carbon emissions from energy use will grow at an average annual rate
of 1.2% per year, from 5,945 Mt last year to 7,950 Mt in 2030,
reflecting growth in fossil fuel demand. The CO2 emissions intensity
of the U.S. economy will fall from 538 Mt per million dollars of GDP
in 2005 to 353 Mt in 2030, an average decline of 1.7% per year.
The Outlook examines only the reference case, which represents a
baseline projection under existing policies and a given set of
assumptions regarding economic, energy market and technology
conditions. The full report, including the characteristics of new
technologies, will be released early next year with regional
projections and a report on the major assumptions underlying the
projections.
EIA is the independent statistical and analytical agency within the
Department of Energy.
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