Dec 6 - McClatchy-Tribune Business News Formerly Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News - Justin Hyde Detroit Free Press

Many of the U.S. auto industry's environmental efforts, including plug-in hybrids and flexible-fuel vehicles, will have little affect on the nation's energy use or output of greenhouse gases if the latest government forecast of energy trends through 2030 holds true.

While sales of flexible-fuel vehicles are expected to rise, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says E85 will barely get off the ground over the next two decades. More electricity will come from burning coal, which increases greenhouse gases, raising questions about the benefits of plug-in hybrids. And U.S. dependence on foreign sources of energy is expected to increase, despite more fuel-efficient vehicles.

The annual projections from the EIA are used by the U.S. government as the basis for any energy-related decisions over the next year and as a baseline in most energy research. The EIA projects only a small increase in the price of oil before 2010, with some decline in the years after that as new sources come on line.

While the EIA boosted its estimates of U.S. ethanol consumption by 21% to 14.6 billion gallons by 2030, only 200 million gallons would be sold as E85, a mix of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. EIA Administrator Guy Caruso said the forecast was based on distribution bottlenecks and a lack of a clear price advantage for E85 over regular gasoline.

Detroit automakers have backed E85-capable vehicles as a relatively pain-free way to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign energy and support renewable fuels.

Jason Mark, director of the Clean Vehicles Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said government forecasts typically understate the degree of changes in the market. But Mark said projections of E85 demand and increased coal use should raise concerns.

"It's very hard to imagine a world where oil prices stay at $50 a barrel, and we don't see a more aggressive introduction of advanced fuels and technology," he said.