Renewables are Europe’s best bet, suggests study

BRUSSELS, Belgium, December 13, 2006 (Refocus Weekly)

Increased support for renewable energies would have the greatest impact on GHG emissions, primary energy demand and import dependency, according to a study requested by the European Parliament's energy committee.

Renewables would reduce CO2 emissions by 46% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, more than the 19% reduction if the continent gives strong support for energy efficiency measures, explains ‘Security of Energy Supply: the potential and reserves of various energy sources, technologies furthering self-reliance and the impact of policy decisions.’ The report was prepared for the Internal Policies Directorate-General of the European Parliament.

Emissions under a ‘business as usual’ scenario would rise 5%, while stronger support for nuclear and sequestration would see levels rise by 2% and lower nuclear support would see emissions rise by 7% by 2030, compared with 1990 emissions.

Renewables would reduce demand for primary energy in Europe by 20%, while energy efficiency would drop demand by 8%, more nuclear would increase demand by 16%, less nuclear would increase it by 12% and BAU would see demand rise by 15%. Import dependency would decline to 49% with strong support for renewables and 60% with more support for energy efficiency, compared with 63% under a pro-nuclear scenario, 67% under a low-nuclear scenario and 65% under BAU.

“The overview of the current and projected situation of fossil and nuclear energy sources and projections on future availability and extraction cost support the vision that the era of cheap and abundant conventional energy resources is coming to an end,” the report explains. “Handling of climate change requires substantial reductions in global GHG emissions, which essentially means using less energy and switching to carbon neutral energy carriers.”

The report groups five future scenarios into two strategies, but notes that even the ‘advanced conventional’ would not be merely business as usual and would require an intensification of the policies for renewables and efficiency. Climate policy would consist of support of renewables “combined with the large scale options of nuclear and carbon capture and storage” and a strong policy to achieve significant emission reductions by elaborating clean technology transfer mechanisms and emission trade systems.

The second strategy, ‘domestic action,’ needs “more radical domestic political action in order to accelerate progress in energy efficiency and renewable energy supply and to achieve the already agreed (indicative) targets for the expansion of renewable energy supply and cogeneration and the enhancement of energy efficiency.” This strategy would “swap the external threats from climate change and geopolitical turmoil for greater challenges with respect to the management of the more radical changes inside the domestic European society.”

All scenarios assume high increases in renewables, particularly in wind generation and biomass use, but a very ambitious renewable scenario would need to be supported by stronger policy and would have to be expanded by 2020 and 2030. Particular fields of relevance are offshore wind energy, biomass and the use of renewables for heating and cooling, it explains.

“Robust steps towards a future EU external energy and climate policy include the fostering of clean development and clean technology transfer, as this will strengthen international relations, partly release demand pressure on energy markets, create additional or strategically needed emission credits and expand markets for renewable and efficiency technologies, which would, in turn, support the domestic development of these technologies,” it concludes.

“The most important renewable energy sources in Europe are biomass, hydro, wind, geothermal, solar and photovoltaics,” and the EU has set quantitative targets to increase the market share of these sources. In 2001, the largest green power was hydro (91.7 GW), wind (17.2 GW), biomass (8.7 GWe), with photovoltaics and geothermal at less than 1 GW. In terms of the annual growth from 1995 to 2001, the highest was wind at 37.9%, PV at 36.6%, biomass at 6.1%, geothermal at 4.5% and hydro at 0.9%.

“Between 1995 and 2001 the use of renewable energies in the EU already showed strong growth rates. If these growth rates can be sustained, wind, hydro and photovoltaic electricity generation will reach the targets given in the White Paper,” it notes. “The EU would pursue a very active policy to promote renewable energies in all scenarios.”

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