Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 13 2241 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2006 Dec 14 2202 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment
Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 348 Issued
at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from
13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 930 (N03W63) continues to
exhibit a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The region is showing a
possible gradual separation of penumbra in its Delta area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high.
Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remains a possibility.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field reached major to severe storm levels. The ACE satellite
observed the shock from the 13 December CME at 14/1356 UTC. A sudden impulse was
observed at the Boulder magnetometer at
14/1416 UTC with a deviation of 26 nT. Periods of major to severe storming
occurred between 14/1200 UTC and 14/1800 UTC. Solar wind speed is currently 900
km/s. A 100 MeV proton event commenced at 13/0300 UTC, reached maximum at
13/0525 UTC with 88.7 pfu and ended at 14/1150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
event that started 13/0310 UTC is still in progress with a current level of 21.7
pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range
from active to major storm levels for 15 December.
This activity is due to the CME observed on 13 December. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected for 16 and 17 December.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 35/35/35
Proton 99/30/30
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 093
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 040/070
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 040/045-012/020-008/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity
Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 50/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/35/35
Minor storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 60/10/10
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached:
2006 Dec 14 0500 UTC
Station: GOES12
Observed Yesterday: Yes
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 9580 pfu
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded
1000pfu Begin Time: 2006 Dec 15 0005 UTC NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu Begin Time: 2006 Dec 13 0345 UTC Maximum Time: 2006 Dec 13 0925 UTC End Time: 2006 Dec 14 1530 UTC Maximum 10MeV Flux: 698 pfu NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales