Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. There was a single C-class, long duration flare at approximately 17/1711Z apparently from Region 930 (S06W88). A slow moving CME from the SW limb occurred with very similar timing and may be associated with this flare. Given the position and slow speed of this CME, it is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 18 and 19. On December 20 the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M 25/15/05
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 081
Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 17 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 004/005-004/005-006/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
 

Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2006 Dec 18 1648 UTC
Deviation: 10 nT
Station: Boulder
 

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006 Dec 18 0500 UTC
Station: GOES12
Observed Yesterday: Yes
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 13600 pfu
 

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales