Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Dec 28 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No spots are visible on the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 28 Dec 076

Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 075/080/085

90 Day Mean 28 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006 Dec 29 0500 UTC

Station: GOES12

Observed Yesterday: Yes

Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 12800 pfu