US CO2 emissions to grow at slower pace than expected: agency

Washington (Platts)--5Dec2006

Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use should grow from 2005 levels of
5,945 million mt to 7,950 million mt in 2030, the US Energy Information
Administration said Tuesday, a lower level than the 8,114 million mt of CO2
emissions EIA anticipated just last year.

The slower projected growth in emissions reflects differences in the mix
of energy use and a lower level of total energy use in this year's report,
compared with last, said EIA, the statistical arm of the US Energy Department.

Total primary energy consumption in 2030 is more than 3 quadrillion Btu
lower in this year's report than was projected last year. "Some of the effect
of the lower projected consumption on carbon dioxide emissions is offset after
2020 by a proportionally higher share of coal use for electricity generation
and increased use of coal at coal-to-liquids plants," EIA noted in its Annual
Energy Outlook, which forecasts energy demand prices to 2030.

But EIA Administrator Guy Caruso warned that the projects do not include
future policy actions that might be taken to reduce carbon dioxide emissions,
and if such action is taken, it would have a "dramatic" impact on EIA's
current forecast that sees coal taking an increasingly larger share in the US
power generation market by 2019.

Many observers see US action on limiting carbon emission in the next few
years. The newly elected Democratic Congress has already said it intends to
act on requiring mandatory carbon dioxide emissions cuts and developing a cap
and trade program. President Bush is against mandatory greenhouse gas cuts.

EIA, in its report, anticipated carbon dioxide emissions intensity of the
US economy to fall from 538 mt per million dollars of GDP in 2005 to 353 mt
per million dollars of GDP in 2030, an average drop of 1.7% a year.

--Cathy Landry, cathy_landry@platts.com

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