US Weather Commentary

Northeast:

Accompanied by some damaging winds & heavy downpours, last Friday's cold front (ironically on December 1st) ushered in the unofficial onset of the new Winter Season for the Northeast.  Subsequently, New York City experienced its first hard freeze of the Season on Monday morning, and yesterday's high almost 10°F below average.  Lake-Effect snows have also been piling up throughout the region, where Buffalo has already eclipsed 30" (compared to the normal-to-date of 14").  Below Normal temperatures should continue through the weekend, but it must be emphasized that despite being dramatically more Wintery than November (thanks in past to a positive PNA), this is not yet a true blocking pattern or a negative NAO.  Thus, you can expect a cold-week/moderated-week cycle for the time being, and we will alert you to any legitimate Blocking patterns we see developing on the horizon.

• Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days [December-March]; excess Snow & Ice Storms. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southeast:

• The Southern and Southeast States had seen their share of cooler weather in November, so the December pattern change is probably not viewed as dramatic as across New England.  However, the positive PNA pattern will sustain solid troughing and provide some very chilly temperatures this week.  Specifically, some record low temperatures could be achieved late this week across the Gulf Coast States where Birmingham will drop into the teens and sub-freezing readings from Mobile to Jacksonville.  Because the deep Southeast (mostly Florida and nearby) continues to dry out at the surface, we continue to warn that this will pose a big concern for hard freezes right to the Gulf coastline and deep into Florida this Winter.
• Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

North-Central:

• Into their 2nd week now of Polar Air, numerous Mid-West cities have had both sizeable snowstorms (a foot of snow from Central Missouri into Central Illinois) and very cold temperatures (2°F in Springfield IL and 8°F in Chicago IL), to show for it.   But since the 'resting place' of these intrusions will be confined mostly to East of the Mississippi River Valley, the High/Northern/Central Plains should also be the quickest and most fervently to rebound back to their Mild-Weather/Minimal-Snowfall feedback cycles, commencing later this week.
• Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days and Lake-Effect events [East of Mississippi River]; Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; reduced precipitation [West of Mississippi River]. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

South-Central:

1. The early-Season Polar wave also struck the South-Central States quite hard with Oklahoma City only reaching an afternoon max of 29°F (breaking the previous record of 32°F standing since 1896) and accumulated 4.6" of snow to top it off.  Sub-freezing temperatures also set records and poured southward all the way to San Antonio (29°F) and the Rio GrandeValley, with record single-digits witnessed in WichitaKS (3°F).  Sunny skies, ridging to the North and dry ground will assist the region to rebound nicely such as Dallas surging back to the 60's by this weekend, and very pleasant weather in store for several more days.

• Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Northwest:

• For those with Spring hydro-electric and stream-flow concerns, the record storms in November may have been better if they were spread out over the course of the entire Winter Season.  While the most frigid readings of the new Winter Season were observed last week over the Northern Rockies and northwestern High Plains, the Pacific Northwest has already rebounded to Seasonable levels, partially supported by an evolving positive-phased PNA pattern.  With storm tracks and moisture streams now focused a little further down the PacificCoast, not too much additional snowfall can be expected over the next week, as temperatures will consistently reach the mid-upper 40's for Seattle and mid-upper 30's for Spokane.
• Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; Below-Normal Precipitation (December-March); Localized cold snaps (particularly pre-December). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southwest:

• Sunny, dry weather has helped keep temperatures pleasantly mild over the past week or so (translating into 80°F yesterday in Los AngelesCA and 70°F for SalinasCA), and this Seasonable/Warm pattern should continue across Southern California and the desert Southwest. Conversely, Northern California and Nevada will now have to start eyeing increased cloudiness, moisture and strong storms soon, as the Northwest storm parade eases up and focuses more southward.
• Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation (potential 'Pineapple Express' flooding). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>