US Weather Commentary

Location: New York
Author: Michael Schlacter
Date: Friday, December 8, 2006
 

Northeast:
  • As the current Polar phase comes to a conclusion, the Northeast is bracing for its coldest day yet of the Season (on Friday), which could also bring the first light snows of the Season for the NYC-metro area (where first measurable inch is usually not recorded until after New Year's).  Lake-Effect snows have also been piling up throughout the region, where Buffalo has already eclipsed 42".  Below Normal temperatures should continue into the weekend, but it must be emphasized that despite being dramatically more Wintery than November (thanks in past to a positive PNA), this is not yet a true blocking pattern or a negative NAO.  Thus, you can expect a cold-week/moderated-week cycle for the time being, and we will alert you as soon as we see any legitimate Blocking patterns developing on the horizon.
  • Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days [December-March]; excess Snow & Ice Storms. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southeast:

  • The positive PNA pattern is sustaining troughing and providing some very chilly temperatures this week.  Specifically, some record low temperatures could be achieved late this week across the eastern Gulf Coast States where Birmingham AL and even Talahassee FL shold drop into the Teens.  Because the deep Southeast (mostly Florida and nearby) continues to dry out at the surface, we continue to warn that this will pose a big concern for hard freezes right to the Gulf coastline and deep into Florida this Winter.
  • Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

North-Central:

  • Wrapping up their 2nd week now of Polar Air, numerous Mid-West cities have had both sizeable snowstorms (a foot of snow from Central Missouri into Central Illinois) and very cold temperatures (4 days below 9°F in Chicago IL), to show for it.   But since the 'resting place' of these intrusions will be confined mostly to East of the Mississippi River Valley, the High/Northern/Central Plains should also be the quickest and most robustly to rebound back to their Mild-Weather/Minimal-Snowfall feedback cycles, commencing this weekend.
  • Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days and Lake-Effect events [East of Mississippi River]; Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; reduced precipitation [West of Mississippi River]. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

South-Central:

  • The early-Season Polar wave also struck the South-Central States quite hard with Oklahoma City only reaching an afternoon max of 29°F (breaking the previous record of 32°F standing since 1896) and accumulated 4.6" of snow to top it off.  Sub-freezing temperatures also set records and poured southward all the way to San Antonio (29°F) and the Rio Grande Valley, with record single-digits witnessed in Wichita KS (3°F).  Sunny skies, ridging to the North and dry ground will assist the region to rebound nicely such as Dallas perhaps hitting 70°F early next week, and very pleasant weather in store for the region for several more days thereafter.
  • Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Northwest:

  • While the most frigid readings of the new Winter Season were observed last week over the Northern Rockies and northwestern High Plains, the Pacific Northwest has already rebounded to Seasonable levels, partially supported by an an ongoing positive-phased PNA pattern.  With storm tracks and moisture streams now focused a little further down the Pacific Coast, not too much additional snowfall can be expected over the next week, as temperatures will consistently reach the mid-upper 40's for Seattle and mid-upper 30's for Spokane.
  • Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; Below-Normal Precipitation (December-March); Localized cold snaps (particularly pre-December). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southwest:

  • Sunny, dry weather has helped keep temperatures pleasantly mild over the past week or so (translating into 80°F a few times in Los Angeles CA and 70°F for Salinas CA), and this Seasonable/Warm pattern should continue across Southern California and the desert Southwest. Conversely, Northern & Central California and Nevada should now be bracing for increased cloudiness, strong coastal storms and mountain snows, as the Northwest storm parade eases up and focuses more southward down the Pacific Coast.
  • Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation (potential 'Pineapple Express' flooding). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

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