US Weather Commentary

Northeast:

Currently in the midst of a Mild Phase (with temperatures more typical of early November), the Northeast is dealing with "weather schizophrenia" this December that characterizes regimes that don't yet have Blocking yet also only have a moderate-El Niño.  This 10 days on, 10 days off cycle, is very reminiscent of the patterns from 2004-2005 Season, one of this year's climate analogs.  The next wave of Polar Air into the contiguous U.S. is already on schedule for later next week, entering into the North-Central corridor (as is usually the case).  But it should be reminded that any such waves diving in West of the Mississippi typically trigger a "See-Saw" reaction, with southerly advection pushing very mild air up across the East, days before any colder air filters to the Atlantic.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days [December-March]; excess Snow & Ice Storms. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southeast:

After dropping to consecutive low temperatures of 23°F and 21°F over last weekend, Tallahassee FL is already enjoying temperatures surging into the 70's this week.  Ample sunshine and ridging subsidence are helping to bring about this pleasant turn-around for the entire Southeast, as a neutralizing PNA pattern would dictate.  However, the PNA pattern will resume its positive phase next week, yielding much cooler, damper and stormier weather for the entire region to conclude the month of December.  Because the deep Southeast (mostly Florida and nearby) continues to dry out at the surface, we continue to warn that this poses an ongoing concern for hard freezes right to the Gulf coastline and deep into Florida this Winter.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days [December-March]; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

North-Central:

The most dramatic temperature anomaly contrasts are expectedly occurring across the Central corridor of the Nation. After Chicago IL experienced a shocking 4 days below 9°F, they are now seeing several afternoons cracking 50°F.  Sizeable anomalies (upwards of +15°F) are on tap for the coming week, but the next tongue of Polar Air should crack the U.S.-Canadian border next week.  Heralding this colder air next week will be another Mid-Con Winter Storm, again spanning from Kansas up to Wisconsin.  It must be reminded however that areas West of the Mississippi River will always be the quickest to resume their Mild Winter patterns this year, especially where snow is scarce or absent.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days and Lake-Effect events [East of Mississippi River]; Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; reduced precipitation [West of Mississippi River]. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

South-Central:

Sunny skies, ridging to the North and dry ground are assisting the region to rebound nicely, such as Dallas consistently reaching the 70's this week, and very pleasant weather in store for the region straight through the weekend.  Temperatures for the Southern States are always vulnerable to reductions wrought by cloudiness, moisture and storms, so the resuming positive phase of the PNA pattern will bring about appreciably cooler/wetter weather, commencing Wednesday.  This weather theme should then be the norm to finish out December particularly for areas toward the Western Gulf, but like their Northern counterparts, the Southern Plains and Southern Rockies will be the quickest to resume warmer patterns.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Northwest:

One of the few areas that will feature some cold temperatures during this National Mild Phase, the Northwest U.S. will contend with typical 'Wet Season' storminess near the Coast and Cascades, but also some hefty Rockies/Interior snows across Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and Utah.  Some powerful coastal gales can also be expected over the next week or so until the pressure gradient pattern breaks down thanks to positive-PNA inspired High Pressure.  Correspondingly, a significantly milder Northwest is in store for the final 10 Days of December.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; Below-Normal Precipitation (December-March); Localized cold snaps (particularly pre-December). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southwest:

The sunny, warm & dry honeymoon has come to an abrupt end for the Southwest as Northern/Central California and Nevada are now contending with strong coastal storms and mountain snows of their own.  A classic foot-print of even weak El Niño events, cloud-cover and precipitation is also being carried into the desert Southwest and southern Rockies.  Interior/Desert hubs most reliant on sunshine and most vulnerable to moisture impacts on temperatures, will correspondingly witness some of the greatest negative departures during the 3-5 Day period.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation (potential 'Pineapple Express' flooding). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

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