US imports continue to plummet on ship channel woes-- EIA ANALYSIS

New York (Platts)--20Dec2006

Shipping delays in the Houston, Sabine and Calcasieu Ship Channels took
its toll on this week's US petroleum data, causing crude imports to plummet
696,000 b/d to 8.902 million b/d and inventories to drop a marked 6.3 million
barrels to 329.107 million barrels, according to data released Wednesday by
the Energy Information Administration.

US commercial crude inventories at 329.107 million barrels are now 3.2
million barrels below year-ago levels, but 30.646 million barrels above the
five-year average. Crude imports at 8.902 million b/d were the lowest since
the week of October 7, 2005 when problems caused by hurricanes Rita and
Katrina wreaked havoc on the weekly data and, consequently, US petroleum
inventories.

About 1.7 million barrels of the drop in crude imports was accounted for
by two days of the Houston Ship Channel being closed since approximately
850,000 b/d on average is offloaded, according to a source at the EIA. In the
past two weeks, US crude imports have fallen a precipitous 1.397 million
b/d, some of which may be related to end-of-year tax considerations. With fog
persisting in the ship channel through this week, the data is likely to
further reflect lost imports in next week's report.

Imports into PADD III declined 633,000 b/d to 4.795 million b/d while
imports into PADD V (West Coast) also fell, dropping 256,000 b/d to 885,000
b/d.

While imports took another hit, throughputs climbed 232,000 b/d to 15.543
million b/d, the highest in three months and contributing to the decline in
stocks. Increases in refinery utilization were seen across all PADDs with the
most notable rise occurring in PADD III. PADD III crude inputs climbed 165,000
b/d to 7.499 million b/d. The jump in crude inputs allowed refiners to push
yields to high levels and increase output. As a result gasoline stocks rose 1
million barrels to 200.9 million barrels and distillate inventories increased
1.2 million barrels to 133.1 million barrels. However, total product stocks
continued to decline, keeping intact an 11-week trend. Total product stocks
inched down 1.553 million barrels to 700.4 million barrels, but increased
against the five-year average. Total product stocks were 13.339 million
barrels above the five-year average compared to 9.831 million barrels in last
weeks report. However, total crude and product inventories fell 7.9 million
barrels to 1,029.5 million barrels.

The increase in product output was sufficient to meet another impressive
week of demand readings. Gasoline demand climbed 97.000 b/d to 9.491 million
b/d as warm weather kept motorists on the roads. On a four-week moving
average, gasoline demand at 9.421 million b/d was 2.3% above year-ago levels.
Distillate demand edged up 25,000 b/d to 4.325 million b/d and on a four-week
moving average at 4.284 million b/d was 2% above the same time one year ago.
Distillate demand has slowed substantially over the past several weeks as
abnormally warm weather has kept demand for heating oil along the
key-consuming Atlantic Coast at a minimum.

--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com

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