by Lester R. Brown
January 2006
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Carbon-Cutting for a Stable Climate
Source:
Lester R. Brown
An excerpt from the new book
Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble,
by Lester R. Brown
Some time ago, I had a call from my son Brian, who had come across a
huge new wind farm as he was driving on one of the interstate highways
in west Texas. He described the rows of wind turbines receding toward
the horizon. Interspersed among them were oil wells. The wind turbines
were turning and the oil wells were pumping. My son was fascinated by
the juxtaposition of the old and the new, the past and the future. I
said, "If you return 30 years from now, the wind turbines will still be
turning, but it is unlikely that the oil wells will be pumping." What he
was looking at in a nutshell was the energy transition, the shift from
the age of fossil fuels to renewables.
The energy transition is gaining momentum. When the Kyoto Protocol was
negotiated in 1997, the proposed 5% reduction in carbon emissions from
1990 levels in industrial countries by 2012 seemed like an ambitious
goal. Now it is widely seen as an outmoded, grossly inadequate goal.
National governments, local governments, corporations, and environmental
groups are coming up with plans to cut carbon emissions much further
than was agreed to in Kyoto by turning to renewables and raising energy
efficiency. Some individuals and groups are even beginning to think
about how to cut carbon emissions by 70%, the amount that scientists say
will be needed to stabilize climate.
In July 2005, the European Commission proposed a new plan to cut energy
use 20% by 2020 and to increase the renewable share of Europe's energy
supply to 12% by 2010. Together, these two initiatives will reduce
Europe's carbon emissions by nearly one third. Among the long list of
measures to boost energy efficiency in these countries are replacing
old, inefficient refrigerators, switching to high-efficiency light
bulbs, and insulating roofs. Reaching the renewables goal requires a
rather conservative addition of 15,000 megawatts of wind power, a
fivefold expansion of ethanol production, and a threefold increase in
biodiesel production. The Europeans' proposed 20% cut in energy use by
2020 contrasts sharply with the projected growth of 10% under a
business-as-usual scenario.
The proposed plan, which is scheduled for final approval in 2006, is
designed to save 60 billion euros by 2020. It is also designed to
stimulate economic growth, create new jobs, and, by reducing energy
outlays, enhance European competitiveness in world markets. The
25-member European Union is second only to the United States in energy
consumption.
In 2005 the Japanese government also announced a national campaign to
dramatically boost energy efficiency in its economy, already one of the
world's most efficient. It urged its people to replace older,
inefficient appliances and to buy hybrid cars. The New York Times
described this as "all part of a patriotic effort to save energy and
fight global warming." It noted that the large manufacturing firms were
jumping on the energy efficiency bandwagon as a way of increasing sales
of their latest high-efficiency models.
Beyond this initial effort, Japan has set goals for boosting appliance
efficiency even further, cutting energy use of television sets by 17%,
of personal computers by 30%, of air conditioners by 36%, and of
refrigerators by a staggering 72%. Scientists are working on a
vacuum-insulated refrigerator that will use only one eighth as much
electricity as those marketed a decade ago.
At the nongovernmental level, a plan developed for Canada by the David
Suzuki Foundation and the Climate Action Network would halve carbon
emissions by 2030 and would do it only with investments in energy
efficiency that are profitable. And in early April 2003, the World
Wildlife Fund released a peer-reviewed analysis by a team of scientists
that proposed reducing carbon emissions from U.S. electric power
generation 60% by 2020. This proposal centers on a shift to more
energy-efficient power generation equipment, the use of more-efficient
household appliances and industrial motors and other equipment, and in
some situations a shift from coal to natural gas as an energy source. If
implemented, it would result in national savings averaging $20 billion a
year from now until 2020.
In Ontario, Canada's most populous province, the ministry of energy
plans to phase out the province’s five large coal-fired power plants by
2009. The first, Lakeview Generating Station, was closed in April 2005;
three more will close by the end of 2007, and the last will be shut down
in early 2009. All three major political parties support the plan to
replace coal with wind, natural gas, and efficiency gains. Jack Gibbons,
director of the Ontario Clean Air Alliance, which endorses the
ministry’s plan, says of coal burning, "It’s a nineteenth century fuel
that has no place in twenty-first century Ontario."
Corporations are also getting involved. U.S.-based Interface, the
world’s largest manufacturer of industrial carpeting, cut carbon
emissions by two thirds in its Canadian affiliate during the 1990s. It
did so by examining every facet of its business -- from electricity
consumption to trucking procedures. Founder and chairman Ray Anderson
says, "Interface Canada has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 64% from
the peak, and made money in the process, in no small measure because our
customers support environmental responsibility." The Suzuki plan to cut
Canadian carbon emissions in half by 2030 was inspired by the
profitability of the Interface initiative.
Although stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels is a staggering
challenge, it is entirely doable. With advances in wind turbine design,
the evolution of gas-electric hybrid cars, advances in solar cell
manufacturing, and gains in the efficiency of household appliances, we
now have the basic technologies needed to shift quickly from a
fossil-fuel-based to a renewable-energy-based economy. Cutting world
carbon emissions in half by 2015 is entirely within range. Ambitious
though this goal might seem, it is not incommensurate with the threat
that climate change poses.
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Lester R. Brown founded the
Earth Policy Institute
in May 2001 to provide a vision and a road map for achieving an
environmentally sustainable economy. Brown has authored or coauthored 50
books.
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