Change to our climate unstoppable, warns expert
By Charles Clover, Environment Editor
(Filed: 31/01/2006)

There is only a small chance of climate change being kept below "dangerous" levels, a Government report said yesterday following figures showing Britain's emissions are rising and plans to reduce them are off course.

Tony Blair admits that the dangers posed by climate change may be more serious than previously thought in a book based on a Government-sponsored scientific conference on global warming last year.

	The report warns that the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting, causing sea levels to rise by 16ft

The report contains fears raised by Prof Chris Rapley, the head of the British Antarctic Survey, that the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting, which could lead in a few hundred to a thousand years to sea levels rising by 16 feet.

It also warns of large-scale irreversible disruption if temperatures rise above by 3C - well within the range of climate change projections for the century.

The book, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, based on the UK Meteorological Office conference at Exeter last February, says that the EU's target of avoiding climate change of more than 2C might be too high, with 2C being enough to melt the Greenland ice sheet.

Tony Blair says in the foreword: "It is clear from the work presented that the risks of climate change may well be greater than we thought."

The conference asked scientists what level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was too much, and to consider options for avoiding such levels.

Currently, the atmosphere contains about 380 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, compared to levels before the industrial revolution of about 270 ppm.

To have a good chance of achieving the EU's 2C target, levels should be stabilised at 450 ppm or below, the report concludes.

But, speaking on the BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser, said that was unlikely to happen.

"We are going to be at 400 ppm in 10 years' time. I predict that without any delight in saying it," he said.

"But no country is going to turn off a power station which is providing much-desired energy for its population to tackle this problem - we have to accept that. To aim for 450 ppm would, I am afraid, seem unfeasible," he added.

Last week the Government admitted that Britain's carbon dioxide emissions rose in 2004, by 0.5 per cent. It also admitted that Britain was on course to make 10 per cent reductions on its carbon dioxide emissions by 2010 instead of the 20 per cent promised in Labour manifestos.

Peter Ainsworth, the Conservative environment spokesman, said: "Every day the news on climate change gets worse, but Britain's contribution to the problem keeps going up.

"How many more warnings does the Government need before it takes effective action to cut emissions? I urge the Government to re-state its absolute commitment to cutting emissions by 20 per cent by 2010 and 60 per cent by 2050."