Natural gas prices, down 54 percent from their December peak, could drop more as one of the warmest winters on record in the United States cuts demand.

January temperatures were the highest on record at the U.S. National Climatic Data Center, and they pulled benchmark New York gas futures to a six-month low last week. Predictions of shortages after the hurricanes Katrina and Rita shut U.S. Gulf Coast gas output have given way to forecasts of record inventories and lower prices.

"Mother Nature showed us who really has control," said Chris Ovrebo, a gas broker with F.C. Stone. "I wouldn't have predicted or expected it."

The decline in gas prices is giving consumers a reprieve from higher home heating bills, which were expected to cut into spending on other goods. They may also blunt criticism of producers from lawmakers, who say companies like Exxon Mobil, BP and Chevron should spend more of their record profits on investments that will lift supplies.

Gas for March delivery fell 15 percent last week, ending at $7.316 per million British thermal units on Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price may reach $6 by spring, said analysts like George Ellis at BMO Nesbitt Burns, Ben Dell at Sanford C. Bernstein and Martin King at FirstEnergy Capital.

Half of the 14 traders and analysts in a Bloomberg survey said New York Mercantile Exchange gas prices would fall this week. Four traders said prices would gain, and three predicted little change. A cold snap now would not put a big dent in inventories, said Stephen Smith, president of Stephen Smith Energy Associates.

"No matter how you cut it, we're going to end up with a glut," Smith said. "I ran a model that's 15 percent colder than normal the rest of the way. You still ended up with a glut." The U.S. Northeast was hit over the weekend with its first major snowstorm of the winter, causing flight cancellations and power outages. Temperatures were below freezing in New York.