Feb 08 - Western Mail

 

Confronting climate change is a global necessity. But, writes Professor Dennis Hawkes of the University of Glamorgan, doing so will create unique economic opportunities for Wales

FOSSIL fuel resources are centred in a few areas in the world and recent events have drawn our attention to the fragility of our energy supply routes.

Energy is in growing demand, and there is always the possibility of conflict as resources diminish. US policy has long recognised that 'security of supply' is a strong driver for change in energy policy - security may now be higher up the priority list for our politicians and planners, too.

Is it possible to move towards a future where sources of sustainable primary energy are available to all, distributed throughout every community, thus removing one reason for international tension?

If so, hydrogen would be the reliable and clean energy vector making energy available where it is needed.

A recent report, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, authored by scientists at a Met Office conference, warns that we must take action on carbon emissions immediately. Currently carbon emissions are growing by around 1.9% annually.

By 2025 we need to have low carbon technology in place to reduce carbon emissions by 2.6% every year. If we don't do this it may be too late to avoid irreversible global warming with its catastrophic consequences.

Can our aspirations for a world protected from climate chaos with a secure and evenly-distributed energy supply be fulfilled? That depends not only on developments in science and technology but also on politicians and policy-makers.

We in Wales have the opportunity to play our part both in reducing carbon emissions and also in increasing the energy supply we draw from our abundant natural resources. There are exciting opportunities for developing, using and exporting new technologies.

As well as our scientists and technologists, our National Assembly has a large part to play and has recently issued a consultation paper with a question as its title: A Science Policy for Wales?

The three proposed strands of the policy given to us in this consultation document are health, low-carbon energy systems and economic and social renewal. At the same time the Welsh Affairs Committee in Westminster is preparing a report on energy in Wales and is looking at policy and at the future portfolio of energy provision in Wales.

One option the UK government is considering is nuclear. The arguments against the nuclear route are well known.

They centre on the very high cost of plant commissioning and decommissioning and threats to safety, both from terrorist attack and from nuclear waste stored for centuries.

Perhaps controversially, Pembrokeshire will be a major UK port for liquefied natural gas, shipped to us for example from the $12bn facility in Qatar in the Persian Gulf.

Qatar has about 9% of the world's recoverable natural gas resources. Experience of operating such a plant safely will give Welsh industry an economic boost through construction and manufacturing.

How efficiently we use the gas in the future will influence our carbon emissions.

If used in a fuel cell, like the very large ones being developed by Rolls-Royce, the energy output would be nearly double that of some existing power generation technologies. Clean coal technology sounds attractive in a country whose history is intimately linked with coal, but the people of Wales well know the dangers and economic difficulties of mining.

The necessary technologies to capture and safely store the carbon dioxide produced are still being developed and will involve substantial capital investment and a significant energy penalty.

Wales could and should exploit renewables: solar thermal and solar photo-voltaics (pv), wind, biomass, geo-thermal, tidal and wave energy and hydro-electric energy.

Wales has world-class expertise in many of these areas as the science policy consultation paper recognises. The UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) website lists two Welsh universities that are involved in Supergen consortia projects, in which UK-leading centres are brought together to tackle the challenges of radical improvement in the sustainability of power generation and supply. The areas of research are solar pv, hydrogen and biological fuel cells.

A Welsh Energy Research Centre (WERC) has been set up to encourage closer integration of Welsh energy research and policy. It is a collaborative body formed by research groups from the Universities of Cardiff, Swansea, Glamorgan and Bangor, together with the Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research, Aberystwyth.

Providing that this will have an equitable structure, an atmosphere of mutual trust and real backing from the Assembly Government, this body holds promise.

Wales is a small country but so is Qatar, and we could make a global contribution to technological developments.

There are immense opportunities for Wales with abundant natural resources and with world-class academics working in the field of energy.

The National Assembly has a statutory duty to promote sustainable development.

Firm support by the Assembly is required, with the investment that makes possible the demonstration of technologies.

This would lead to the development of distinctive low carbon energy systems for Wales and expertise in the manufacture and exploitation of renewable technologies for the rest of the world.