Global oil at sea nears late winter peak: Oil Movements

Singapore (Platts)--24Feb2006

Global oil stocks at sea, or crude in transit from producers to
consumers, will likely reach a winter season peak of over 500-mil bbl in early
March, according to Roy Mason, who tracks global crude tanker activity for Oil
Movements, a UK-based consultancy. 
     That figure is based on a four-week average of estimated crude tanker
shipments, and is up around 6% from levels seen about the same time last year.
     "That will certainly be a high point for the winter season, and will
happen three months later than is normal," Mason writes in the latest issue of
his weekly newsletter released Thursday.
     Westbound oil-in-transit from the Middle East will be up around 20-mil
bbl, accounting for most of the year-on-year change. 
     Effects of the 2005 hurricane season in the US Gulf of Mexico continue to
be evident in disrupted seasonal patterns for global oil shipments, Mason has
said in previous notes.
      "An offshore stock build of 0.3-mil b/d in the year to date is not all
that big, but over this period a stock draw of the same order is the more
normal outcome. Atlantic basin stocks that can be seen (onshore stocks) and
stocks out of sight, have been building counter-seasonally," he wrote.

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