India wants solar to provide 42% of total energy

NEW DELHI, India, February 8, 2006 (Refocus Weekly)

Solar could provide 42% of India’s total energy supply by 2100, according to a scenario in the country’s draft policy on renewables that was circulated for public consultation.

The Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources drafted the ‘New & Renewable Energy Policy Statement 2005' to set a strategic vision for renewables, but is not a blueprint. The Statement lists priorities to meet the national goals of energy security and energy independence, and places renewables in perspective with competing conventional and nuclear sources.

The document solicited public comments until December 16.

By 2022, renewables are shown to increase from the current level of 147 million metric tonne of oil equivalent to 275 MMTOE, although the share of total energy drops from 33.5% to 30.9% over that period. Biomass is the largest contributor now, at 139 MMTOE (32% of total), while wind is 0.14 MMTOE (0.03%) but will grow to 2 MMTOE (0.22%) within 15 years.

In different scenarios to 2052 and 2100, all renewables increase to 440 to 1,220 MMTOE by the middle of the century, with corresponding market shares of 29% to 48%, while the total by the end of the century could be 1,860 MMTOE, which would be 73% of India’s total energy supply. Solar would be the largest technology at 1,070 MMTOE (42%) while biomass would provide 700 MMTOE (27%) and wind turbines would provide only 10 MMTOE (0.4%) of national energy supply.
“It has also been recognized that renewable energy development in the country has somewhat lagged behind deployment; consequently, the country remains a net importer of new and renewable energy systems/devices although in biomass gasification it has attained a leadership position,” it states. “The Statement proposes a policy direction for making the new and renewable energy sector a net foreign exchange earner by 2021-22.”

“In order to meet the challenges of the future, the need for a comprehensive new and renewable energy policy has been felt,” explains the preamble to the draft, which is designed to “send appropriate signals to industry, scientific and technical community, business and investors to indigenously develop new and renewable energy technologies, products and services, at par with international standards, specifications, and performance parameters for deployment in a manner so as to arrive at an optimal fuel-mix that most effectively meets the overall concerns of the country.”

Energy efficiency is expected to increase by a factor of 2 during the second half of the century, taking care of additional requirement of energy.

The scenarios demonstrate that the future energy mix will shift from finite resources to increasing use of renewables and from primary energy to energy carriers. “An inference that can be drawn with a relatively high degree of confidence is that new and renewable energy sources will dominate the country’s energy scene in the future and the biomass - solar - hydrogen economy should be firmly in place sometime by the second half of the 21st century unless fusion deployment makes a wide appearance.”

“Renewable energy is not expected to increase its share in the fuel-mix in any significant manner at least up to 2052, as under the likely and optimistic scenarios its share is expected to increase to 39% and 53% respectively,” the draft states. “Percentages, perhaps, might not reflect the true magnitude of change as in quantum terms the increase is from the 2002 level of 147 MMTOE to 710 MMTOE (likely) and 1,360 MMTOE (optimistic) in 2052.”

Even by 2022, 275 MMTOE is expected from renewables, ie: nearly double the 2002 level, and the fossil fuel economy should peak by the middle of the century which “could have a deleterious effect on the economy,” it warns. Renewables are not expected to be “firmly in place to start playing an effective dominant role” in the medium term, and would take more time for R&D to match new systems with existing systems in terms of reliability, quality and cost.

The scenarios assume that nuclear fusion technology will mature during the second half of the century and, if not, “the quantum of energy attributed to this technology in 2100 would have to be met out of the biomass-solar assets.”

The minister for non-conventional energy sources, Shri Vilas Muttemwar, told a conference that the situation for renewables “would only improve in future as 1,000,000 MW of power generating capacity from renewable sources by 2050 is no longer a dream but a stark reality.” Currently, 7,200 MW of green power capacity is installed in India, representing 6% of the country’s power capacity.

The government recently launched a scheme to promote the use of solar water heating in urban areas, by using concessional loans from lending institutions at an interest rate of 2% for residential, 3% for institutions and 5% for commercial groups.


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