Middle East LPG export could rise 67% to 41-mil mt by 2010

Tokyo (Platts)--23Feb2006

LPG export volumes out of the Middle East could rise 67% from the current
24.3-mil mt to 40.6-mil mt in 2010, according to forecasts by energy
consulting firm Poten & Partners' Colin Shelly. 
    The increase will be driven by four countries in the Middle East,
including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Iran, Shelly said in a keynote
address at the International LP Gas Seminar in Tokyo Thursday.
    "There are four major countries in the Middle East that are increasing
their LPG production volume. The one that has attracted the most attention has
been Qatar," Shelly said. "Qatar may produce 10-mil mt/year of LPG by the end
of this decade with number of LPG projects in the country," he added.
    However, Shelly also pointed out an uncertainty which could impact future
LPG production in his presentation.
    "Do we necessarily assume that all the new LPG plant will run at the
capacity designed? In fact, LPG plants may not operate at capacity," Shelly
said citing a example that 1.2-mil mt/year Bonny LPG plant in Nigeria has been
running at 650,000mt/year rate capacity. This is because many of the LNG
buyers in Spain or Italy have preferred to take a richer LNG, or LNG with LPG
containing which has higher Btu, he said.

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