OPEC trims 2006 non-OPEC supply growth forecast to 1.38-mil b/d

London (Platts)--15Feb2006

Oil cartel OPEC on Wednesday reduced estimates of demand for its crude
and global consumption growth in 2006, and said inventories of middle
distillates and gasoline stand at "comfortable" levels.
     Demand for OPEC crude, known as the call on OPEC, in 2006 will average
28.5-mil b/d, 200,000 b/d less than expected a month ago, economists at OPEC's
Vienna headquarters said in a monthly report. World oil demand in 2006 will
increase by 1.57-mil b/d, 50,000 b/d less than expected in January. 
     This report is OPEC's last before the group meets Mar 8 to set supply
policy for the second quarter, when fuel demand falls from its winter peak. 
Crude in New York has slid about 12% this month to under $60/bbl as rising US
gasoline stocks overshadow concern about crude supply disruptions. 
     "Looking ahead, middle distillate and gasoline stocks stand at
comfortable levels," the report said. "These product inventories are expected
to recover in Asia as freezing weather in the north-east has dissipated.
Additionally, demand for all products other than middle distillates is slow
and it seems that it could not support crude prices in the short term."
     In the report, OPEC made a small adjustment to its forecast for non-OPEC
supply growth in 2006, trimming its estimate to 1.38-mil b/d from its previous
prediction of 1.43-mil b/d.
     Non-OPEC countries are expected to produce an average of 51.53-mil b/d of
crude this year, up from 50.15-mil b/d in 2005.

     NON-OPEC SUPPLY
     The expected growth in non-OPEC supply in 2006 follows a much smaller
increase last year, and is expected to continue in the medium term, OPEC said.
     "Over the next few years, non-OPEC production is expected to grow at
record rates, exceeding the 2000-05 annual increase. Production growth is
expected to average during the 2006-2008 period 1.4-mil b/d annually with a
range between 1.2-1.7-mil b/d," OPEC said in the report.
     The Former Soviet Union is expected to lead the non-OPEC supply growth,
with most of the new oil coming from the Caspian region rather than Russia,
OPEC said. Total output from the FSU is expected to rise to 13.2-mil b/d by
2008 from last year's level of 11.5-mil b/d.
     Citing secondary sources, OPEC said it pumped 29.7-mil b/d of crude in
January, down 170,000 b/d from December. A Platts estimate of OPEC output
earlier this week pegged January production at 29.68-mil b/d.

More OPEC news can be found in Platts OPEC Guide at
http://www.platts.com/Oil/Resources/News%20Features/opec/index.xml

Please visit: www.platts.com

Their coverage of energy matters is extensive!!.