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LONDON, England, February 15, 2006 (Refocus
Weekly)
Renewables have the largest technical potential
to avoid greenhouse gas emissions by the end of this century,
according to a report released by the UK government.
The overall conclusion of the report, ‘Avoiding Dangerous Climate
Change,’ is that rising concentrations of GHG may have more serious
impacts than previously believed. In the report's foreword, UK Prime
Minister Tony Blair says "it is now plain that the emission of GHG
... is causing global warming at a rate that is unsustainable.”
While nuclear could avoid 300 GtCO2e by 2100, biological
sequestration could avoid 350, CO2 capture and storage could avoid
2,000, non-CO2 GHG reduction could avoid 500 and energy efficiency
improvements could avoid the emission of 1,000 GtCO2e. Renewable
energy technologies, on the other hand, are estimated to have the
potential to avoid the emission of 3,000 GtCO2e.
Energy efficiency is the dominant option for avoiding CO2 emissions
until 2030, while renewables, along with nuclear and sequestration,
contribute more to the portfolio later. The lower the stabilization
level, the earlier the more expensive options will have to be
applied, it explains.
The technical potential of renewables by 2020-2025 is estimated at
130 to 2,301 exajoules (EJ) a year, with ocean thermal at 21,
geothermal at 41, wind at 7 to 10, hydro at 35 to 55, biomass at 72
to 137, and solar at 16 to 230 EJ/a. In the longer term, renewables
are estimated to provide 6,401 to 7,000 EJ, of which ocean thermal
and geothermal contribute 20 EJ each, hydro to be 30 to 130, wind to
be 130 to 640, biomass at 275 to 1,300, and solar to range from 160
to 5,000 EJ.
“Several estimates have been published for the technical potential
of renewable energy,” with an important factor underlying the wide
ranges being the different assumptions on land availability. “Wide
ranges in the order of a few hundred up to a few thousand EJ are
also reported for wind-based electricity and solar-based electricity
(but) even the lowest estimates are equal to several times the
present world electricity consumption.”
“For PV and wind, the problem of integrating each into the existing
energy system may play an important role in determining the market
potential,” it adds. “Renewable energy options are currently among
the more expensive options (US$40 to $60 per tonne of CO2), but
costs are likely to go down substantially over time.”
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