Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jan 31 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 31 Jan 078

Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 31 Jan 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 000/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 001/002

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 003/005-003/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01