Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 05 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for some unsettled intervals for 06 February. Quiet levels should predominate for 07-08 February.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 05 Feb 076

Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 077/077/077

90 Day Mean 05 Feb 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 005/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/01