Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 07 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (08-10 February).

III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Feb 074

Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 07 Feb 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 011/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/01