Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 11 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. LASCO imagery showed a CME on the SE limb beginning at about 10/2330Z which does not appear to be Earth directed. One spot remains visible in Region 853 (S09W78).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to a recurrent coronal hole.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Quiet conditions should return on 13 Feb.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 11 Feb 076

Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 080/085/085

90 Day Mean 11 Feb 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/10/10

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/15/10

Minor storm 10/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01