Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 854 (S07E23) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of an isolated active period on 16 February. On 17 and 18 February, mostly quiet conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 15 Feb 079

Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 15 Feb 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 001/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 007/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 005/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01