Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 16 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. Developing Region 854 (S07E10) appears to have stabilized as a small D-type sunspot group with very little flare potential. A prominence erupted early in the period off the southwest limb near S38, but no geomagnetic response is expected. New Region 855 (N06E28) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions during the first half of the period. Solar wind speed was elevated to near 600 km/s, but declined to near 450 km/s by the end of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 and 18 Feb. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 19 February and produce occasional active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 16 Feb 079

Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 16 Feb 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 007/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 010/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/25

Minor storm 01/01/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/30

Minor storm 05/05/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05