Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 18 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. No sunspots are visible on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Active conditions are possible on 19 February due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 18 Feb 079

Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 18 Feb 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 010/012-006/010-006/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05