Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 19 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No significant activity was noted today. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The ACE spacecraft indicates that weak coronal hole effects began near 19/1430Z with a meager rise in wind speed and temperature.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Active to isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 22 February due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 19 Feb 077

Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 19 Feb 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 006/008-006/010-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/25

Minor storm 01/01/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/25/35

Minor storm 05/10/25

Major-severe storm 01/05/15