Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 21 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. Activity was limited to a small disappearing solar filament which occurred in the southwest quadrant. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned transequatorial coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. The coronal hole should begin to wane late on 24 February with conditions diminishing to quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 21 Feb 076

Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 21 Feb 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 009/020

Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 012/020-010/015-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/30/30

Minor storm 20/15/15

Major-severe storm 10/05/05